\u8ced\u6ce8\u7ba1\u7406\u6d89\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u5408\u7406\u5206\u914d\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002\u826f\u597d\u7684\u8ced\u6ce8\u7ba1\u7406\u7b56\u7565\u5305\u62ec\u8a2d\u5b9a\u8ced\u6ce8\u9650\u984d\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u56e0\u70ba\u77ed\u671f\u52dd\u5229\u800c\u904e\u5ea6\u8ced\u535a\uff0c\u6216\u56e0\u70ba\u77ed\u671f\u5931\u6557\u800c\u6025\u65bc\u8ffd\u56de\u640d\u5931\u3002\u73a9\u5bb6\u61c9\u8a72\u5236\u5b9a\u9810\u7b97\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u904a\u6232\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5805\u6301\u4e0d\u8d85\u904e\u9810\u5b9a\u7bc4\u570d\u7684\u8ced\u6ce8\uff0c\u9019\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u9632\u6b62\u8cc7\u91d1\u8017\u76e1\u3002
\u7b56\u7565\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u73a9\u5bb6\u61c9\u6839\u64da\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u724c\u529b\u548c\u904a\u6232\u60c5\u6cc1\u4f86\u8abf\u6574\u8ced\u6ce8\u3002\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u9078\u64c7\u9069\u7576\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\u984d\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u5316\u56de\u5831\u6216\u63a7\u5236\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u624b\u724c\u5f37\u52c1\u6642\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u4e0b\u6ce8\u4ee5\u64f4\u5927\u5229\u6f64\uff1b\u800c\u5728\u624b\u724c\u8f03\u5f31\u6642\uff0c\u5247\u61c9\u63a1\u53d6\u4fdd\u5b88\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u4e0b\u6ce8\u984d\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u5c0d\u624b\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u50be\u5411\u4e5f\u662f\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u89c0\u5bdf\u5c0d\u624b\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u4f86\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u7684\u8ced\u6ce8\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\u64b2\u514b\u724c\u4e2d\u7684\u8ce0\u7387\u8207\u671f\u671b\u503c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u8ce0\u7387\uff08Odds\uff09\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u6642\u7684\u7372\u5229\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u5fb7\u5dde\u64b2\u514b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u8ce0\u7387\u662f2:1\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0b\u6ce81\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c\u82e5\u7372\u52dd\u5247\u80fd\u7372\u5f972\u55ae\u4f4d\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u3002\u8ce0\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u73a9\u5bb6\u8a55\u4f30\u4e0b\u6ce8\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u624b\u724c\u5f31\u6216\u5f37\u6642\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002
\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff08Expected Value, EV\uff09\u662f\u6307\u5728\u9577\u671f\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e0b\u6ce8\u7684\u9810\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u3002\u8a08\u7b97\u671f\u671b\u503c\u9700\u8981\u8003\u616e\u8ce0\u7387\u548c\u624b\u724c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u516c\u5f0f\u70ba\uff1a
EV=(\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u00d7\u7372\u5229)\u2212(\u5931\u6557\u6982\u7387\u00d7\u640d\u5931)\\text{EV} = (\\text{\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387} \\times \\text{\u7372\u5229}) – (\\text{\u5931\u6557\u6982\u7387} \\times \\text{\u640d\u5931})EV=(\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u00d7\u7372\u5229)\u2212(\u5931\u6557\u6982\u7387\u00d7\u640d\u5931)
\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u4f60\u670950%\u6a5f\u6703\u7372\u5f97100\u55ae\u4f4d\u7372\u5229\u548c50%\u6a5f\u6703\u640d\u593150\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u671f\u671b\u503c\u70ba\uff1a
EV=(0.5\u00d7100)\u2212(0.5\u00d750)=25\\text{EV} = (0.5 \\times 100) – (0.5 \\times 50) = 25EV=(0.5\u00d7100)\u2212(0.5\u00d750)=25
\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f60\u9810\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u80fd\u7372\u5f9725\u55ae\u4f4d\u7684\u56de\u5831\u3002\u901a\u904e\u8a08\u7b97\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u73a9\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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